Woche 1

• Has risen 9.6% in the last 20 years
• Best performing years 2004/2005/2019
• Worst performing years 2022/2008(Subprime crisis)/2018

• North America +69.7%
• in Eurpope +24.7
• China: The average adult is 3x wealthier
• Asia Pacific (exkl. China): +26.9%

• 70% higher (2010-2019)
• Number of millionaires grew by 90% (2010-2019)
• The biggest changes in the lower to upper midle class (2010-2019)
• Total global household wealth grew by 2.6% (2018-2019)

• Growth Markets are Catching up to mature markets
• Market Share 1999: Mature Markets 90% / Growth markets 10%,
• Market Share 2019: Mature Markets 75% / Growth Markets 25%

1. Automation
2. Internet of Things (IoT)
3. Artificial Intelligence
4. Digitalization/Digitization

2009 and 2021 a big rise of Goods and Service agreements

1. Sustainability
2. Wellness (health)
3. Aging Population

1. Financial Contagion (Ansteckung)
2. Jobs losses
3. National Sovereignty loss (Souveränität)
4. Polution
5. Loss of Culture

1. Product/Service quality is no longer a differentiator
2. Conventional business models are easily disrupted
3. Companies need to focus on solution-oriented and data-driven business models that support the customer in their own desicion making

Export:

1. Asia
2. Middle East
3. Europe
4. South America
5. North America
6. Africa

Imports:

1. North America
2. Asia
3. South America
4. Middle Eats
5. Africa
6. Europe

1. Cost of living crisis
2. Natural disaster
3. Geoeconomic confrontation
4. Failure to mitigate climate change
5. Erosion of social cohesion and societal polarization
6. Large scale environmental damage incidents
7. Failure of climate change adaption
8. Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity
9. Natural resource crises
10. Large-scale involuntary migration

1. Western central banks raise interest rates
2. The inflation crisis hurts shoppers and retailers
3. Covis-19 takes many more lives
4. Asia's appetite for energy helps push global oil demand up by 1.5%
5. Despte recession riks, tech spending rising more than 6%
6. Streaming firms continue to invest heavily in content
7. Global scales of new cars grow by just 1% but those wiith electric vehicles increase by 25%
8. USA, de word biggest defense spender, boosts annual outlays to 800bn$
9. Broad gauges (Rückgang) in commodity prices
10. Air travel turns profitable as internationaö arrivals soar(rise) by 30%

• Global growth will slow from 3.5% to 3%
• Global inflation decline from 8.7% to 6.8%
• Slowdown in advanced economies of 2.7% (2023) and 1.4% /(2024)
• Higher gas prices in Europe (War)
• Groth of emergin markets 3.1% (2022) 4.1% (2023/2024)

1. Slowdown of economic growth: 2.1% in 2022 - 0.7% in 2023 -Risk of recession is low but energy and rising prices will slow growth
2. Financial sector dilemma - Rapidly evolving economic and geopoliticla landscape
3. Tourism industry not back to normal: Expectation in 2026
4. Swiss pharma balances between innovation and costs: Inflation, energy-supply uncertainities, and strong swiss franc  jeopardizing the prospects
5. Mutlinational copanies in the ESG crosshairs (Fadenkreuz): Companies will continue to be on the defensive to operate in countires such as russia/china
6. Machine industry bracing for hard times:Key issues include the free movement of people and scientificcollaborations
7. Watchmaking set for growth: Swiss watch exports increased by 12% in the first half of 2023

• Drivers of international include:Trade agreements (P/L), resulting in (E) industrialization and development of markets and economies and integration of global markets through(T) automation,digitalization , AI and Internet of things leading to greater attention to (S) sustainability, wellness, and the aging population, while attention to (E) climate change and sustainability has also increased. 
• The worst case post-pandemic scenario has mostly been avoided / Recovery will be uneven
• Global Economic Outlook: Hindered by ongoing conflict in Ukraine, post pandemic effects, concern caues by political polarization, climate change, looming energy crisis, and inflation
• Switzerland: Robust, competitive, srvice-driven economy, dtrong democraic tradition, export oriented SME's (Small and medium sied enterprises)

• Falling trade an investement barriers
• market liberalization
• free market 
• industrialization 
• integration of world financial markets and technological advances

GATT = General Agreement on Tarifs and Trades

Gegründet: 1947

Goal: Promotion of international trade through the reduction of trade barriers and tariffs

1995 durch WTO abgelöst.