Theory of Sustainability

• dealing with uncertainty and ignorance
• including practical knowledge into decision making
• grasping long term effects
• meeting a claim of a holistic perspective
• dealing with complexity 

Utilitarian: moral value of an action is measured by its contribution to increase welfare, utility, happiness etc.

Underlying Principle: Consequentialism, i.e. those alternatives are best, whose consequences are most desirable. 

rational = one is able to give good reasons for his/her decision

while gut feelings are intuitive decisions / where the intellect is not involved

• Science-based politics ideally justifies its decisions and measures without gaps

• A good policy is applied science

• Policy advice is done by following “recipes” that are applied mechanically

• Good politicians act instinctively and intuitively – following their gut feelings

• Politics is improvisation

A good politician needs both: scientific reasoning and intuition

Kant "Critique of Pure Reason": judgment is...distinguishing whether this / that does or does not stand under a given rule

• ability of a person

• enables the person to bridge between a specific situation and general aspects/rules

• practical knowledge: necessary for decision making, for advising

3 Features

1. Bottom-up Approach: Example of diagnosis: the doctors understands medical ailments and the doctor subsumes the symptoms under a certain disease.

(vs. Top-down Approach: a therapist who applies general rules to heal a patient)

2. Heuristic: Judgement uses heuristics – i.e., rules and bridging principles that provide orientation when searching. When judging, a human presumes that the world is structured in a comprehensible way. That is, why it makes sense to search for rules and laws. 

3. One needs feelings, but feelings are capable of both truth and error. Therefore we must abstract from our inclinations, interests and personal sentiments (Aristotle) AND it is helpful to judge from the point of view of an impartial observer (common sense). 

Conditions for Good Judgment (vs. relying on gut feelings)

• Refrain from personal inclinations, interests and ideology

• Objectiveness: Understand and act for the sake of the concern

• Openness for dialogue: Try to understand others

Scientific Knowledge

• Well-defined, abstract question

• Solution / demonstrable 

• Logical method / coherence

• Theory, Model, facts (certain/precise)

• Can be taught/learnt in books

• non-personal

Practical Knowledge/Judgment

• Concrete/diffuse situations
• Decisions / non demonstrable
• Heuristic method 
• Gaps in argumentation
• Narratives / examples / reality / knowhow
• Uncertain / imprecise
• Not teachable / has to be exercised / Personal

Power of Judgment

• Distinguish important from irrelevant
• Make fair evaluations
• Make good decisions

1. Chronos: Homogeneous concept of time / time bar / basis of scientific analysis

2. Kairos: Relevant for practical action and decision-making, i.e., "right time to act"

3. Inherent time, inherent dynamics: Natural course of things (lifespan/ typical duration of a process) creates temporal boundary conditions for action

Aim- make inherent time visible and find the kairos! 

1. Identify relevant stocks/resource

• gather previous knowledge / check their importance

2. Sketch the inherent time of stocks

• gather previous knowledge / check their importance

3. Integrate dynamics of stocks to an overall picture and search for windows of opportunity

• keep as simple as possible / complex as necessary
• Judgement of analyst is essential

2 Types of Stocks: material stocks / immaterial stocks and persistent institutions (a set of material elements that is persistent, where persistency is measured against a time scale of observation / chronos)

Characteristics:

• Stock dynamics is typically non-static, but inertial – change takes time

• Long time spans for built-up or change of whole system

• Complex dynamics

Example: Construction of Traffic Infrastructure 

• planning and building: 5-15 years
• life expectancy: 20-30 years or more

Immaterial Stocks: immaterial factors change over time – but slowly (important for sustainability policies)

• knowledge / technologies
• lifestyles / cultures / traditions / preferences
• Institutions / regulatory frameworks
• Incentives

Key

• Political action needs judgment
• Judgment uses heuristics
• Sustainability needs time

Stocks relates to time: Material stocks and immaterial stocks/persistent instutitons 

Heuristics consists of bridging principles to

1. identify relevant stocks

2. Sketch their inherent time

3. Integrate to overall picture and identify kairos