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Erstellt / Aktualisiert 17.01.2021 / 06.02.2021
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0 Exakte Antworten 95 Text Antworten 1 Multiple Choice Antworten
Fenster schliessen

What can we forecast?

  • Sells of pills/medicine
  • Elextricity demand and availability
  • Weather
  • Sells of product/service
  • Customer churns

 

Fenster schliessen

Which factors affect forecastability?

  • Some thing is easier to forecast if:
    • we have a good understanding of the factors that contribute to it
    • There is lots of data available
    • the forecasts cannot affect the thing we are trying to forecast
    • There is relatively low natural/unexplainable random variation
    • the future is somewhat similar to the past

 

Fenster schliessen

What are time series data?

  • Daily stock prices
  • Monthly rainfall
  • Annual business profits
  • Production, e.g. quartely australien beer production

 

Fenster schliessen

What is forecasting about?

Forecasting is estimating how the sequence of observations will continue into the future

Fenster schliessen

What do wee need to add to the forecast?

An uncerainty range

Fenster schliessen

Why is providing an uncertainty of the forecast in forecasting important?

If you have just the probabilty (e.g. 50%) you do not know the deviation. So you could for example produce the 80% of the forecast. The worst case scenario is that customer could order or demand more. If you can not provide the asked product of piece, you have the bigger loss (in image) than if you have produced a bit too much, which you can hold and put in the sale in the end.

Fenster schliessen

When is it ok to use the gaussian distribution in forecasting?

As long as the to be predicted number is far away from 0 (like hundreds of thousends of better millions)

Fenster schliessen

Name the definitions of statistical forecasting:

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