Integrated Assessment

ghg concentration as input, t° change as output 

questions: impacts of t° chage? control ghg concentrations?

results of each scientific field used as input for next one 

problem: uncoordinated assumptions 

group of scientists work together and exchange knowledge

pro: common assumptions 

con: no feedbacks considered 

information flow based on annual schedule 

pro: considers feedbacks

con: not invertible 

one common equation for all submodel. timeline 10-100y

• coherent framework considering feedbacks
• identifies knowledge gaps 
• consistent modeling of interaction btw systems
• enforces collaboration and ongoing research 

• provide dataset 
• establish benchmark 

• alternative images of how future might unfold 
• result of complex interactions in socio-ecc system
• diff scenarios are conceivable and equally sound 

intergovernmental panel on climate change 

• economic, global
• ecc growth
• technologies
• convergence 
• atlernative change in energy systems: 
  • A1FI: fossil sources 
  • A1T: non fossil
  • A1B: mix

• economic, local
• self-reliance
• low convergence
• slow and frangmented growth anc technology 

• environmental, global
• convergence
• change twds service and information economy
• global solutions without climate initiatives 
  • cleaner technologies
  • reduced material intensity 

• environmental, local
• intermediate ecc development 
• slow and diverse technological change 
• oriented twds environmental protection and social equity 

• poluation, economy, technology
• all are business as usual models
• today, scneario named after radiative forcing 

amount of co2 emitted from energy supply driving global economy 

GDP x primary energy intensity 

projection model of future economic and energy development based on historical data and observed trends 

• bottom up energy systems engineering model 
• calculates minimal cost of supply structures under constraint of 
  • energy demand
  • available resources
  • technology 

• top down macro economic model
• optimal growth model to determine relationship btw
  • ecc development 
  • energy use 

CO2 emissions = carbon intensity x energy intensity x GDP per capita x population 

• reduce carbon intensity
• reduce energy intensity 
• to compensate
• increasing population
• increasing gdp per capita 

• fuel switching
• co2 capture and sequestration
• renewable energies 
• nuclear energy
• enhance co2 sinks 

• efficiency improvement 
• structural change 
• behavioral change 

• lignit: 110
• coal: 100
• oil: 75
• natural gas 50
• renewables, nuclear, CCS: 0 

• improve insulation
• improve industrial processes
• reduce aerodynamic and rolling resistance for vehicles 

• improve prower plant efficiencies 
  • combined cycle gas turbine power plant CCGT
  • integrated gasification combined cycle IGCC
  • fuel cells
• improve heat supply efficiencies
  • condensing value boilers
  • heat pumps 
• cogeneration heat and power 

• hydro power plants
• wind energy converters
• photovoltaic cells
• solar thermal powerplants
• biomass fired powerplants
• geothermal powerplants 

• solar collectors 
• biomass boilers
• geothermal heating station 

• use synthetic liquids from biomass to replace fuel
• use biomass to produce electricity or hydrogen for batteries 

possible from technical perspective to satisfy global demand w renewables (solarm wind, geothermal) 

• not available everywhere and always, need transport of resource
• temporary variability and fluctuations need to be compensated 

catch CO2 from power plant before released to atmosphere, pum it to a storage place 

• cleaning exhaust gas from fossil fuel combustion by facility attached to power plant 
  • through a liquid w affinity w co2, dissolves it, pure co2 when evaporated after transport 
• efficiency loss 9-14 percentage points 
• additional fuel demand 30-50% 

• low proportion of co2 in exhaust gas, difficult to extract
• energy loss and fuel demand