Macroeconomics 1

Macroeconomics 1

Macroeconomics 1

Marco Kofel

Marco Kofel

Kartei Details

Karten 99
Sprache English
Kategorie VWL
Stufe Universität
Erstellt / Aktualisiert 06.01.2021 / 06.01.2021
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Stagflation

"Stagnation plus inflation" --> Negative supply shock

lower aggregate output and higher aggregate price level

Recessionary Gap

When aggregate output is below potential output. (real GDP below potential output)

Corresponds to high unemployment which leads nominal wages (and other sticky prices) to fall, leading producers to increase output.

Causes SRAS to shift to the right.

Inflationary Gap

When aggregate output is above potential output. (real GDP above potential output)

Corresponds to low unemployment which leads nominal wages (and other sticky prices) to rise, leading producers to decrease output.

Causes SRAS to shift to the left.

Stabilization Policy

The use of fiscal and monetary policy to offset demand shocks.

Fiscal Policy: Creates aggregate demand

Monetary Policy: Shifts AD to the right or left.

Drawbacks: Those policies may contribute to a long-term rise in the budget deficit and crowding out of private investment, leading to lower long-run growth. Poorly timed it can increase economic instability.

Policy Dilemma

Negative supply shocks pose a dilemma. To stabilize aggregate output requires increasing AD which leads to inflation. But to stabilize prices requires decreasing AD which will deepen the output slump.

Government Transfers

mostly in social insurances (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, The Affordable Care Act)

Fiscal Policy

The use of taxes, government transfers, or government purchases of G&S to shift the aggregate demand curve. The Government controls G directly and influences C and I through taxes and transfers.

Expansionary Fiscal Policy

increases AD (“extra fuel for the economy”) shift to the right if

  • Increase in government spending
  • Cut in taxes
  • Increase in government transfers

Contractionary Fiscal Policy

decreases AD (“brakes for the economy”) shift to the left if:

  • Reduction in government spending
  • Increase in taxes
  • Reduction in government transfers

Lump-Sum Taxes

Taxes that do not depend on the taxpayer’s income

Discretionary Fiscal Policy

Change in government spending or taxes with the purpose to expand or shrink the economy as needed.

Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance

An estimate of what the budget balance would be if the economy were at potential output. It varies less than the actual budget deficit.

Implicit Liabilities

Spending promises made by governments that are effectively a debt despite the fact that they are not included in the usual debt statistics. (e.g. Social Securities)

Gain of Efficiency

Instead of finding trading partner to exchange G&S (barter system), money always takes one side of the trade

The 3 roles of money in the economy

  1. Medium of Exchange: Something people accept as payment for G&S.
  2. Store of Value: Money (and every other asset!) is a mean of purchasing power over time. It enables people to save the money to buy G&S in the future.
  3. Unit of Account: Money provides a yardstick for measuring and comparing the values of a wide variety of goods and services.

Thre types of money

Commodity Money: A good with intrinsic value (Eigenwert) used as a medium of exchange (e.g. cigarettes for trading during WWII).

Commodity-Backed Money: Paper currency with no intrinsic value, but it promised that it ca be converted into valuable goods. Advantage: it allowed society to use commodity resources (e.g. gold and silver) for other purposes.

Fiat Money: Money whose value derives entirely form it s official status as a means of payment. Risk: Counterfeiting (Fälschen, Geld fälschen).

Monetary Aggregate

An overall measure of the money supply

M1: Contains only the most liquid forms of money (currency in circulation or cash, checkable bank deposits, traveler’s checks)

M2: Includes M1 plus near-moneys (financial assets that cannot be traded directly but converted into cash or checks immediately)

Bank Run

if many depositors try to withdraw their funds due to fears of a bank failure

Bank Regulations to protect depositors and the economy against bank runs

(4)

  1. Deposit Insurance: Guarantees depositors will be paid even if bank cannot come up with funds. Up to a max. amount per account. (USA: $250’000, CH: CHF 100’000)
  2. Capital Requirements: Requirement that the owners of banks hold substantially more assets than the value of bank deposits.
  3. Reserve Requirements: Rules set by the Federal Reserve that determine the minimum reserve ratio for a bank (USA: min. reserve ratio is 10%)
  4. Discount Window: Arrangement in which Federal Reserve stand ready to lend money to banks in trouble, thus bank is not forced to sell its assets at fire-sale prices

Shadow Banks

Not covered by insurance or any bank regulations! E.g. Investment banks, insurance companies, hedge fund companies, money market fund companies

Monetary Base

Sum of currency in circulation and bank reserves

The FED's main tools for monetary policy

(3)

  1. Reserve Requirements: The federal funds market allows banks that fall short of the reserve requirement to borrow funds from banks with excess reserves. The federal funds rate is the interest rate determined in the federal funds market.
  2. Discount Rate: Allows banks that fall short of the reserve requirement to borrow funds from the FED via the discount window. The discount rate is the rate of interest the FED charges on those loans. The discount rate is usually higher that the federal funds rate
  3. Open-Market Operations (most important): When FED buys and sells primarily U.S. Treasury securities on the open market in order to regulate the supply of money that is on reserve in U.S. banks, and therefore available to loan out to businesses and consumers. They are the principal tool of monetary policy!

Expansionary Open-Market Operations

If FED wants to increase the money supply (expansionary OMO), it will buy T-bills to banks:

- to pay T-billy, FED electronically increases the reserves of the seller
- With more reserves, banks increase loans
- Money supply increases as the loans/money creation process ripples through the economy

Contractionary Open-Market Operations

If FED wants to decrease the money supply (contractionary OMO), it will sell T-bills to banks:

- In exchange for the T-bills, FED decreases the reserves of the seller
- With fewer reserves, bank decrease loans
- Money supply decreases as the loans/money creation process ripples through the economy in reverse.

Subprime Lending

Lending to home-buyers who do not meet the usual criteria for being able to make the mortgage payments. (helped creating the housing bubble).

Liquidity Preference Model of the Interest Rate

Model, where MD Curve and MS Curve intersect.

Shifters of the Money Demand Curve (MD Curve)

 

(4)

Price Level: Other things equal, the demand for money is proportional to the price level: Higher prices shift the MD curve to the right and lower prices to the left.

Real GDP: More G&S produced and sold means we need more money: An increase in real GDP shifts the MD curve rightward, a decrease leftward

Credit Markets & Bank Technology: The need for cash has been reduced by a series of innovation (ATM’s, Twint, Online Banking, PayPal etc.): It’s easier to make purchases without cash, thus shifting the MD curve to the left.

Institutions: If banks increase the interest rate on their accounts, it reduces the cost of holding money, shifting the MD curve to the right.

Shifters of the Money Supply Curve (MS Curve)

The FED can shift the MS curve by performing open-market operations to increase or decrease the money supply.

Increasing MS and driving interest rate down by purchasing T-bills or decreasing MS and driving interest rates up by selling T-bills.

In the short run, an increase in the money supply reduces the interest rate which leads to a short-run increase in real GDP and an increase in the supply of loanable funds.

Monetary Policy

Changes in the money Supply. Main tool of macroeconomic stabilization because to fewer lags than fiscal policy.

Expansionary Monetary Policy

increase the MS ► increases the aggregate demand

Contractionary Monetary Policy

decrease the MS ► decreases the aggregate demand

Inflation Targeting

Central bank uses inflation targeting by setting an explicit target for the inflation rate and sets monetary policy in order to hit that target.

Monetary Neutrality

Changes in the money supply have no real effect on the economy, only on the aggregate price level.

In the long run, the macro equilibrium is back again at its previous position, but the aggregate price level is higher than before.

Short-Run Philips Curve 

The Short-Run Philips Curve is the negative short-run relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Because this relationship is negative, the curve slopes downward.

Shifters of the Short-Run Philips Curve

→SRPC shifts rightward when the SRAS shifts leftward:

  • negative supply shock
  • increase in expected inflation
  • staglfation

←SRPC shifts leftward when the SRAS shifts rightward:

  • positive supply shock
  • decrease in expectd inflation

Liquidity Trap

When conventional monetary policy is ineffective because the nominal interest rate is up against the zero-lower bound. Could always appear if there’s a sharp reduction in demand for loanable funds. Monetary policy is ineffective

Classical View on macroeconomics.

Flexible prices and focus on the long run mean a vertical SRAS curve; shifts in AD affect only aggregate price level.

Keynesian View of macroeconomics

Sticky prices and upward-sloping SRAS curve; shifts in AD affect the price level and output

Monetarism

asserts that GDP will grow steadily if the money supply grows steadily.

Monetarists asserted that:
- Attempts to stabilize the economy with fiscal or monetary policy would make things worse.
- GDP would grow steadily if the money supply grew steadily

Discretionary Monetary Policy

The use of changes in the interest rate or the money supply to stabilize the economy.